Ma Guangyuan: the market will cool but not freezing during the national day of the introduction of the restriction speed is spectacular, the property purchase credit limit has three major characteristics: one is the time to focus on the National Day golden week, the traditional buyers of gold window period; two is mostly introduced in the middle of the night; three is the intensity of the large, hitherto unknown. This limited purchase limit is not only restarted after two years, but also a strengthened version of the previous limited purchase limit. In such a severe regulation storm, will house prices fall? After many years of research on China’s real estate industry, I believe only in some of the characteristics and indicators that the market shows, but also rarely talk about sensational conclusions such as plunging or falling. This regulation of the storm is really very fierce, but the impact of the next step of the real estate trend is not to see the strength of the boxing, but also to see the intention of the fist. Management layer selection during the National Day golden week is the introduction of There was no parallel in history. the restriction limited credit policy, the purpose is precisely to prevent the real estate to the collapse of the risk of overheating, rather than to accelerate its collapse. At this time, the policy of limiting purchase and lending was introduced for the purpose of healthy development of the real estate market, not to suppress the real estate market. If during the golden week is the introduction of the policy, from the previous situation, the market has formed a strong collusion strength, prices continue to rise, the market continues to madness, continue to increase leverage is hard to change, if this place nothing, it is bound to accelerate after the collapse of the real estate boom is coming. Therefore, my conclusion is: This is the human to cool the market, nurturing the market, to ensure that the market does not appear serious problems, leading to systemic risk. The market inflection point has already arrived on the market itself, the turning point of the main data and indicators has already arrived. But this year the real estate market in the local government control of land supply led to the land of "the most expensive land, excessive market rendering hedge demand, resulting in an unprecedented expansion of the market panic, speculative investment demand in the market for the hitherto unknown, and the inflection point has emerged under the condition of the skyrocketing situation. In terms of the market itself, not over whether the introduction of regulatory measures, in the period of 6 months to cool the market is a high probability. This time the city to limit the purchase limit of the city, the target is very obvious, mainly to curb investment speculation demand, suppression of excessive hype. The biggest problem China real estate market is not the price is too high, but the investment in speculative excess, artificially suppressed supply caused by soaring prices will be adjusted, hedge demand will be selling the future, and once sold, the market is expected to reverse, enormous leverage is likely to lead to systemic risk. As the city where the home price is not so impressive, there is a real value depression. But the price is very high in the city, is not necessarily the most risk of the city, such as Beijing, the land supply tightening to such an extent, this year has been the supply of land less than 10% of the plan, panic demand still exists, even if the introduction of strict restriction, is still not expected to change. Those who do not have the concept of scarcity but soaring City, has been very risk. The price performance is very complicated, there will not be a common fall or rise, the regional real estate market extremely shocking Chinese decided, what appeared generally rose or fell has basically not.